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☆ Strategist discusses outlook for interest rate cuts, inflation figures
▼ + stars: | 2024-03-25 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailMarkets enthusiastic about rate cuts despite modest disappointment in inflation data: StrategistSteve Englander, global head of research and chief strategist at Standard Chartered, discusses why the Federal Reserve will want to cut interest rates this year despite continued inflationary pressures.

Persons: Steve Englander Organizations: Standard Chartered, Federal Reserve

☆ Dollar pares gains on soft U.S. inflation data
▼ + stars: | 2024-01-12 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

The dollar index pared gains on Friday after U.S. producer prices unexpectedly fell in December, raising expectations of an early U.S. rate cut. That led traders to add to bets for a rate cut in the coming months. Fed funds futures now imply a 79% chance of a March rate cut, up from 73% on Thursday, according to the CME Group's FedWatch Tool. Traders maintained their view that a March rate cut is likely even after consumer price inflation data on Thursday came in above economists' expectations. The dollar index was last up 0.19% at 102.40.

Persons: Steve Englander, Englander, Martin Luther King Jr, Sterling, bitcoin Organizations: U.S, British, Global, Research, Standard Chartered Bank, Branch, Traders, U.S . Securities, Exchange Commission, Wednesday Locations: Yichang, Hubei province, U.S, Yemen, America, Zealand, Iran, Red, Gaza

☆ UK and Europe's borrowing costs slide after central banks hold rates
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-02 | by ( Jenni Reid | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

People walk outside the Bank of England in the City of London financial district, in London, Britain, January 26, 2023. The 10-year yield on U.K. government bonds, known as gilts, was 13 basis points lower at 4.366% at 3:20 p.m. in London following the Bank of England announcement at midday. The 2-year yield, a reflection of interest rate expectations, was down 8 basis points at 4.711%. Elsewhere in Europe, bond yields have also been sliding. German 10-year bond yields fell following the Fed decision and were around 5 basis points lower on Thursday, while Italy's 10-year yield was down 9 basis points.

Persons: Henry Nicholls, —, Philip Lane, Jerome Powell's, Steve Englander Organizations: Bank of England, Reuters, Federal Reserve, European Central Bank, ECB, Research, Standard Chartered, Treasury Locations: City, London, Britain, Europe, North America, U.S

European stocks (.STOXX) fell as much as 0.5% in early trading, with rate-sensitive tech stocks (.SX8P) losing 0.8%. And the latest spike in oil prices to 10-month highs is unlikely to escape the Fed's attention. Fuelling worries over persistent inflation were oil prices, which firmed after hitting a 10-month peak a day earlier. ECB HIKE BETSThe euro was down 0.1% at $1.074, after nearing one-week highs on the Reuters story which was published late on Tuesday. "The leak raises the possibility of a hawkish hike which would be much more supportive for the EUR," said Steve Englander, global head of G10 FX research at Standard Chartered, referring to the Reuters report.

Persons: Androniki, Robert Alster, you'll, Steve Englander, Tom Wilson, Stella Qiu, Shri Navaratnam, Christina Fincher Organizations: Nikkei, REUTERS, Consumer, Index, Federal Reserve, Management, European Central Bank, Reuters, ECB, Nasdaq, Brent, U.S, West Texas, Markets, Standard Chartered, Thomson Locations: Tokyo, Japan, SYDNEY, Asia, Pacific, London, Sydney

☆ Asian shares slip, oil hold gains ahead of US inflation test
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-13 | by ( Stella Qiu | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

Both S&P 500 futures and Nasdaq futures were mostly unchanged. In Asia, MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan (.MIAPJ0000PUS) slipped 0.3% while Tokyo's Nikkei (.N225) eased 0.1%. While core CPI is seen cooling to 4.3% year-on-year in August from 4.7%, rising energy costs are forecast to keep headline inflation elevated at 3.6%. And the latest spike in oil prices to ten-month highs is unlikely to escape the Fed's attention. On Wall Street, the S&P 500 fell 0.6% overnight, the Nasdaq declined 1% while Dow Jones was mostly flat.

Persons: Androniki, Ray Attrill, Dow Jones, Steve Englander, Stella Qiu, Shri Navaratnam Organizations: Nikkei, REUTERS, Apple, Oracle, Thursday SYDNEY, European Central Bank, Reuters, ECB, Nasdaq, Tokyo's Nikkei, Consumer, Index, Federal, Fed, National Australia Bank, Brent, U.S, West Texas, Standard Chartered, Thomson Locations: Tokyo, Japan, Europe, Asia, Pacific

☆ Soft data drags back dollar ahead of Jackson Hole
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-24 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

The dollar nursed a sharp pullback against Asian currencies on Thursday, after softer-than-expected global economic data muddied the interest rate outlook and pushed down U.S. yields ahead of the Federal Reserve's Jackson Hole symposium. The New Zealand dollar also leapt overnight, as did the yen , which crossed below 145 to the dollar for the first time in more than a week tracking a sharp move lower in U.S. Treasury yields. The dollar index , which measures the greenback against a basket of six major currencies remains higher for the month, but dipped about 0.2% overnight. PMI data was soft globally, which tempered gains for the euro and sent sterling on a wide-ranging round trip before it steadied around $1.2717. China's yuan, which has been supported by state-bank buying in recent sessions, was steady at 7.2864 in thin offshore trade.

Persons: Jackson, PMIs, Carol Kong, Jerome Powell's, Steve Englander Organizations: Federal, Commonwealth Bank of Australia, New Zealand, Treasury, PMI Locations: U.S, Asia, China

☆ Analysis: With central banks' job half done, global inflation talk is shifting
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-23 | by ( Balazs Koranyi | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +6 min

"It may just be lucky that a global demand slump or non-policy related domestic forces are driving inflation lower." This disconnect led the German central bank to issue a warning to peers this week that a tough task may still lie ahead for policymakers. "The impression took hold that inflation rates will nonetheless persist for longer above the rates targeted by central banks," the Bundesbank said. Indeed, longer-term inflation expectations for the U.S. and the euro zone remain above the banks' 2% targets. But even in the best case, weaker growth will reduce demand for imports and complicate the global outlook.

Persons: JACKSON, Steve Englander, Piet Haines Christiansen, Philip Lane, Lane, Niels Graham, Julian Evans, Pritchard, Balazs Koranyi, Dan Burns, Toby Chopra Organizations: Standard Chartered, The Bank of England, ECB, Reserve Bank of Australia, Reserve Bank of New, Danske Bank, U.S, People's Bank of, Atlantic Council, Capital Economic, Thomson Locations: , Wyoming, Jackson Hole , Wyoming, Britain, Australia, New Zealand, German, Europe, Reserve Bank of New Zealand, Jackson, People's Bank of China, China

The increase, anticipated by investors with nearly a 100% probability, would raise the benchmark overnight interest rate to the 5.25%-5.50% range. That would bring it to roughly the highest level since the approach to the 2007-2009 financial crisis and recession. Far from it, the economy is proving more resilient to rising interest rates than expected, with ongoing growth and an unemployment rate that is currently pinned at a low 3.6%. New data on the Fed's preferred measure of inflation, the personal consumption expenditures price index, will be released on Friday. The Fed will have a larger-than-usual amount of data to assess before its next meeting on Sept. 19-20, some eight weeks away.

Persons: Jerome Powell, Steve Englander, Powell, Howard Schneider, Dan Burns, Paul Simao Organizations: Federal, Reuters Graphics Reuters, Fed, Standard Chartered, Data, Conference Board, Thomson Locations: WASHINGTON, U.S, North America

☆ A 'momentous week' ahead as the Fed, ECB and Bank of Japan near pivot point
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-24 | by ( Elliot Smith | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +7 min

Bloomberg | Bloomberg | Getty ImagesThe U.S. Federal Reserve, Bank of Japan and European Central Bank will all announce key interest rate decisions this week, with each potentially nearing a pivotal moment in their monetary policy trajectory. The Fed Each central bank faces a very different challenge. "The FOMC will, however, maintain a tight monetary policy stance to aid continued softening in demand and consequently, inflation." Several analysts over the past week have suggested that policymakers will remain "data dependent," but push back against any talk of interest rate cuts in the near future. ECB Chief Economist Philip Lane last month warned markets against pricing in cuts to interest rates within the next two years.

Persons: Goldman Sachs, Michael Cahill, Cahill, Steve Englander, Englander, Philip Lane, Paul Hollingsworth, Christine Lagarde, Hollingsworth Organizations: Bank of Japan, U.S, Bloomberg, Getty, . Federal Reserve, European Central Bank, ECB, Federal, Moody's Investors Service, Standard Chartered, Downside, Fed, BNP, Bank of Locations: U.S, North America, Bank of Japan, Japan

☆ Dollar deepens dive on inflation surprise
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-13 | by ( Tom Westbrook | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

The euro made a fresh 15-month high of $1.1148 in Asia on Thursday and the yen touched its strongest since mid-May at 138.08 per dollar. U.S. core inflation came in at 0.2% in June against market expectations for 0.3%. Moves in other currencies were smaller but still delivered new milestones as traders reckon the dollar has further to drop. The Swiss franc hit its strongest since 2015 at 0.8655 to the dollar and sterling a 15-month top of $1.3019. Amongst the dollar selling, one outlier was perhaps the yen which has led gains.

Persons: Imre Speizer, Malaysia's, Pita Limjaroenrat, Steve Englander, Kazuo, Ueda, Chang Wei Liang, Tom Westbrook, Jamie Freed, Kim Coghill Organizations: month's, U.S, Westpac, New Zealand, Swiss, Standard Chartered, Bank of Japan, Fed, Central Bank, Thomson Locations: SINGAPORE, Asia, Scandinavia

☆ Dollar takes a beating as traders see U.S. rates peaking
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-13 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

The dollar had its worst session in five months overnight, falling more than 1% against the euro to its lowest in more than a year and notching even larger losses elsewhere. U.S. core inflation came in at 0.2% in June against market expectations for 0.3%. Two-year Treasury yields, which track rate expectations, dropped more than 15 basis points overnight to 4.73%. Sterling sat at $1.2994, just below its overnight high of $1.3001. Chinese trade data is due later on Thursday, along with minutes from last month's European Central Bank meeting, European industrial production data and British monthly GDP.

Persons: Steve Englander, Sterling Organizations: month's, U.S, New Zealand, Sterling, Swiss, Standard Chartered, Swedish, Bank of Japan, Central Bank Locations: Asia, Scandinavia

☆ Dollar takes a beating as traders see US rates peaking
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-13 | by ( Tom Westbrook | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

The dollar had its worst session in five months overnight, falling more than 1% against the euro to its lowest in more than a year and notching even larger losses elsewhere. The New Zealand dollar reached a two-month high of $0.6309 and the Aussie a three-week peak of $0.6796. The moves were small, yet showed traders' faith the dollar has further to fall. Sterling sat at $1.2994, just below its overnight high of $1.3001. The Swiss franc , which hit its highest since 2015 overnight, traded just below that level at 0.8661 francs to the dollar.

Persons: Steve Englander, Sterling, Tom Westbrook, Jamie Freed Organizations: month's, U.S, New Zealand, Sterling, Swiss, Standard Chartered, Swedish, Bank of Japan, Central Bank, Thomson Locations: SINGAPORE, Asia, Scandinavia

☆ Stocks stall as US rates seen higher for longer
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-15 | by ( Tom Westbrook | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

Committee members surprised markets by projecting two more 25 basis point hikes this year, sending short-term U.S. yields higher and closing out bets on any cuts in 2023. "The market takeaway was that rates would stay high for longer, rather than spike upwards in line with the shift in projected Fed funds rate." Two-year Treasury yields jumped as much as 13.5 bps in the session, before settling two bps higher at 4.69%. China cut a key benchmark, its medium-term loan rates, by 10 bps and the yuan hit a six-month low of 7.1783 per dollar. That likely confirms an end to rate hikes and the kiwi was last down 0.7% at $0.6163.

Persons: Jerome Powell, Steve Englander, Powell, Tai Hui, Bitcoin, Shri Navaratnam Organizations: ECB SINGAPORE, U.S . Federal Reserve, Fed, Central Bank, Nikkei, Standard Chartered, Morgan Asset Management, New Zealand, ECB, Bank of Japan, Brent, Thomson Locations: China, New Zealand, U.S, Asia, Pacific, Japan, New York, CHINA, Beijing

☆ Dollar on rates-watch as traders wait on loans data
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-08 | by ( Tom Westbrook | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

The yen slipped slightly, reflecting Friday's move higher in U.S. bond yields that followed strong jobs data. "But for the time being, the market is likely to run with the theme of a peak in Fed rates justifying a clear peak in the dollar." The U.S. dollar index dropped for a second week in a row last week, losing about 0.4%. "There is a risk that regional bank issues could escalate, posing a broader risk to the financial system and taking the dollar (higher)," said Standard Chartered's head of G10 FX research, Steve Englander. "We think that the escalation of debt-ceiling concerns is a more likely source of risk-off dollar strength via demand for immediate dollar liquidity."

☆ Dollar dips as job openings fall, Fed meeting in focus
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-02 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

The dollar fell Tuesday after data showed that U.S. job openings fell in March, a day before the Federal Reserve is expected to hike interest rates by an additional 25 basis points. The dollar index fell 0.22% to 101.93 after earlier reaching 102.40, the highest since April 11. The single currency has risen since mid-March on expectations that the interest rate differential with the U.S. dollar will continue to shrink. The Aussie dollar rose 0.51% to $0.6664, after earlier getting to $0.6717, the highest since April 21. The dollar fell 0.56% to 136.67 yen, after earlier hitting 137.78, the highest since March 8.

☆ Asia shares bounce gingerly as bank fears linger
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-21 | by ( Tom Westbrook | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan (.MIAPJ0000PUS) rose 0.4%. Japanese markets were closed for a holiday, which left Treasuries untraded in Asia and lightened currency trade. S&P 500 futures were flat and European futures rose 0.5%. The tense calm follows a Swiss government-backed buyout of Credit Suisse by UBS that seems, for now, to have cauterised concerns over European financial stability. The broader path for rates, meanwhile, is set to become clearer later in the week when the Fed and Bank of England set policy levels.

March 21 (Reuters) - Investors on Tuesday took some heart from the rescue of troubled lender Credit Suisse by its Swiss rival UBS (UBSG.S), though concerns lingered about the risk of shockwaves further damaging credit markets and smaller U.S. banks. "The current situation in U.S. regional banks and Credit Suisse has raised concerns about contagion risk," said Grace Tam, chief investment advisor Hong Kong at BNP Paribas Wealth Management. Credit Suisse CEO Ulrich Koerner, who was expected to attend the conference, however, dropped out and the event was closed to media after the weekend rescue. Shares in First Republic Bank (FRC.N) halved on Monday on worries that last week's $30 billion infusion of capital would not be enough. The regulators said owners of this type of debt would only suffer losses after shareholders have been wiped out - unlike at Credit Suisse, whose main regulators are in Switzerland.

☆ Asia stocks bounce gingerly but bank fears lurk
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-21 | by ( Tom Westbrook | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

U.S. futures rose 0.2% in early Asia trade. A Swiss government-backed buyout of Credit Suisse by UBS has cauterized the immediate concern over European financial stability. But the wipeout of some Credit Suisse bondholders has sent a shockwave through bank debt, and persistent signs of stress at U.S. regional lenders has investors on high alert. Bond markets whipsawed overnight as traders seek to figure out what the bank stress means for rates policy. U.S. interest rate futures have priced in just one more 25 basis point hike before a series of cuts beginning as soon as June.

☆ Currency experts are turning bullish on the euro as Europe looks to hold off a recession
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-11 | by ( Elliot Smith | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

A euro currency symbol sits on display in the visitor centre at the European Central Bank (ECB) building in Frankfurt, Germany. As markets head into a year of uncertainty against a backdrop of shifting economic data and monetary policy, analysts are turning positive on the outlook for the euro . Central to the euro's weakness last year was aggressive monetary policy tightening from the U.S. Federal Reserve while the European Central Bank was much later out of the blocks in hiking interest rates to contain runaway inflation. The economic threat posed by sky-high energy prices in the euro zone has also faded amid an unseasonably mild winter in much of northern Europe. "Both euro area core inflation and economic surprises have continued to strengthen, making it easier for the European Central Bank to maintain a hawkish tone.

☆ Dollar slides as traders weigh China outlook, U.S. jobless claims
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-29 | by ( Hannah Lang | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

Markets are weighing the impact of China's rapid loosening of its strict COVID-19 rules with a surge in new infections. The dollar also fell against the Swiss franc to as low as 0.9208, the lowest level since March 31. Against a basket of currencies, the U.S. dollar index fell 0.479% to 103.840, having climbed 0.18% in the previous session. But analysts warned against reading too much into price moves amid low trading volumes as markets head into the new year. The aussie rose 0.70% versus the greenback at $0.678, while the kiwi rose 0.68% against the dollar at $0.635.

As the Federal Reserve, European Central Bank, Bank of England and other Western central banks to varying degrees drained the liquidity punchbowl this year by raising rates and initiating quantitative tightening, the BOJ was on the other side with People's Bank of China filling it back up again. Liquidity support for world markets next year was always going to dwindle, but few would have had a possible BOJ halt to asset purchases on their bingo card so soon. ROCKY ROAD AHEADThis year has been one of the worst ever for world markets, hammered by multi-decade high inflation and interest rates across much of the developed world, and a rampant dollar. "The largest expansion of central bank balance sheets in history will give way to the largest contraction in history," they said. The ECB last week laid out plans to stop replacing maturing bonds from its 5 trillion euro ($5.31 trillion) portfolio.

☆ POLL Dollar's retreat temporary, likely to reclaim recent highs
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-02 | by ( Hari Kishan | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

BENGALURU, Nov 2 (Reuters) - The dollar's retreat in foreign exchange markets is temporary, according to a Reuters poll of currency strategists, who said the greenback still had enough strength left to reclaim or surpass its recent highs and resume its relentless rise. The Fed is widely expected to raise its benchmark rate by 75 basis points on Wednesday, its fourth jumbo increase in a row. However, for the December meeting interest rate futures showed a split on the odds of a 75 or 50 basis point increase. Those six and 12-month median forecasts were a slight upgrade from the October poll and the first since April. It was expected to trade around 146.0, 141.7 and 135.0 per dollar over the next three, six and 12 months respectively.

☆ Dollar's retreat temporary, likely to reclaim recent highs - Reuters poll
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-02 | by ( Hari Kishan | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

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